A list of contenders for the Cannes Film Festival was recently released, and while they are competing for the coveted Palme d’Or, these films may also make a splash at the 2026Oscars.Although the Oscars are often considered one of the biggest nights in movies, festivals like Cannes are just as pivotal. Movies likePulp Fiction, Parasite, Taxi Driver,andApocalypse Nowhave all won the Palme d’Or, and went on to become legendary in the cinema community.Oftentimes, the films that succeed at Cannes have a huge impactonthe Oscars race nearly a year later.
The 78th Cannes Film Festival will begin on Tuesday, May 13and run until Saturday, May 24. At this time, there areabout 19 movies in contention for the Palme d’Or, and more will be added according to the festival’s general delegate, Thierry Frémaux. Considering how pivotal movies likeAnoraandEmilia Pérezwere to the 2025 Oscars, this year’s Cannes contestants could be just as important. The following are five early predictions for the Cannes contenders at the 2026 Oscars.
5Paul Mescal Will Get A Best Actor Nomination Post Gladiator 2
Mescal Will Be Up Against Stiff Competition
One prediction for the 2026 Oscars that seems quite likely after the recent Cannes announcement is that Paul Mescal will be nominated for Best Actor. To some, this theory may seem likely because ofhis upcoming historical drama,Hamnet,directed by Chloé Zhao, in which he will play William Shakespeare. However,I think it is hisotherhistorical drama,The History of Sound,that will snag him the nomination. This book-to-movie adaptation follows two men who travel throughout New England recording folk songs in the summer of 1919. Based on a beautiful story, Mescal could shine in this tragic romance.
If Mescal does earn a Best Actor nomination,it will be particularly exciting because of howGladiator 2fared in 2024. The movie did well financially and critically, but was absent from the Oscars, leaving Mescal empty-handed. Fortunately,The History of Soundcan make up for that. Of course, a nomination is no guarantee of a win. Considering the current Oscars 2026 predictions, Mescal will likely be up against big names such as Leonardo DiCaprio, George Clooney,and Timothée Chalamet. It is too early to make a strong guess, but hopefully, Mescal can grab a nomination at least.
4Wes Anderson’s New Movie Won’t Get Nominated At All
Wes Anderson Needs To Wow Critics For An Oscar Nom
A far less exciting prediction post Cannes nominations is thatWes Anderson’s new movie,The Phoenician Scheme,won’t receive any nominations at the 2026 Oscars. Currently,The Phoenician Schemeis up for the Palme d’Or, and is being marketed as a black comedy espionage film starring Benicio del Toro, Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, and more. Unfortunately,despite Anderson being a beloved director, his most recent work has been consistently skipped over at the Oscars. Neither 2023’sAsteroid Cityor 2021’sThe French Dispatchearned any Oscar nominations.The Phoenician Schemecould continue this trend.
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Based on Anderson’s recent Oscars absences,The Phoenician Schemewould have to really wow critics to gain a spot at the 2026 ceremony. Beyond just style and quirkiness, the movie would have to tell a compelling story that puts it on the level of more “serious” work.The last time Anderson won an Oscar for a feature film was in 2014 forThe Grand Budapest Hotel,so arguably,The Phoenician Schemewould have to offer something similar However, at this point, with the movie still weeks from its release, it seems like it will be another overlooked Anderson project.
3Alpha Will Be The Next Anatomy Of A Fall
Alpha Benefits From A Captivating Storyline (& A Past Win)
At the 2024 Oscars, the French crime film,Anatomy of a Fall,absolutely swept, raking in five awards. A movie that could follow in those same exact footsteps isAlpha.Another Palme d’Or nominee,this movie follows an 11-year-old girl who lives in a fictional city in the 1980s and is affected by the AIDs crisiswhen one of her parents falls ill. The movie stars Golshifteh Farahani, Tahar Rahim, Emma Mackey, and Finnegan Oldfield, and is directed by Julia Ducournau. Though it is in English, the movie is technically French.
It is also a strong contender because Ducournau previously won the Palme d’Or in 2021 for her movie,Titane.
LikeAnatomy of a Fall,Alphabenefits from having a truly compelling story. Based on the premise alone, it is clear that this will be a raw and heartbreaking movie that deals with real-life issues and the complexities of growing up. It is also a strong contender because Ducournau previously won the Palme d’Or in 2021 for her movie,Titane.AlthoughAlphaseems to veer away from Ducournau’s typically grotesque, horror work, it could be her most impactful work yet.
2Eddington Will Be Ari Aster’s Very First Academy Award Nomination
Why Aster Deserves An Oscar Nom
Another well-known director with a movie premiering at Cannes in 2025 is Ari Aster.His latest movie,Eddington,is a Western black comedy which follows a small-town sheriff and a mayor whose disagreement turns into an intense standoff in the spring of 2020 in Eddington, New Mexico. The movie stars Joaquin Phoenix, Pedro Pascal, Emma Stone, Austin Butler, and Luke Grimes. Though this could be a long shot,I thinkEddingtonhas a chance of earning Aster his very first Oscar nomination, mainly because the movie diverges from his usualhorror route and has his most star-studded cast yet.
Aster has yet to be nominated for an Academy Award, but his reputation precedes him. After directing horrifying movies likeHereditaryandMidsommar,he has become a massive name in horror. Unfortunately, his most recent film,Beau Is Afraid,left most audiences disappointed. In this way,Eddingtonis Aster’s chance to not only break his typical horror mold, but do so in a successful way. With strong actors and a solid premise, this could be Aster’s chance to gain more recognition for his work.
1Cannes Movies Will Not Sweep In 2026 Like They Did In 2025
The 2026 Oscars Will Be Full Of Surprises
Overall, my main prediction concerning the 2026 Oscars is thatthe current Cannes movies will not be as significant as the Cannes movies from 2024.At the 2025 Oscars,Anoratook home several major prizes, and had won the Palme d’Or just months before. Yet, this year, it seems like the competition will be even more fierce between Cannes movies and other films. Major directors like Noah Baumbach, Chloé Zhao, Paul Thomas Anderson, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Guillermo Del Toro are all releasing films. Plus, franchises likeAvatarandWickedwill make important bids.
The 2026 Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 15. They will be hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Thebest prediction to make about the 2026 Oscars is that anything could happen. Past years have taught us that what we think will succeed may not, and vice versa. For example, Francis Ford Coppola’sMegalopoliswas anticipated to be a huge release, yet the movie itself failed to captivate viewers. Therefore, only time (and more film festivals) can tell us how theOscarsare going to play out.
