Conclavehas passed a major box office milestone. The movie, which has garnered copious Oscar buzz, is a new drama fromAll Quiet on the Western Frontdirector Edward Berger starring two-time Oscar nominee Ralph Fiennes as a cardinal who unravels major secrets while helping select the new Pope. TheConclavecastalso includes Oscar nominee Stanley Tucci, two-time Oscar nominee John Lithgow, prolific Italian actor Sergio Castellitto, and Emmy nominee Isabella Rossellini.
PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,Conclaveis projected to end the second weekend of its theatrical run with a 3-day gross of $5.3 million at the domestic box office, landing it at No. 4 on the chart for the weekend, above the new releaseHere. This brings the movie’s cumulative domestic total to $15.2 million,pushing it past the $15 million milestoneand putting it in the Top 75 movies of the year in North America. Because the movie’s budget was $20 million, it is drawing ever nearer to earning back that total.
What This Means For Conclave
The Movie Has A Way To Go Before It Breaks Even
Typically, because theaters keep half of ticket sales and publicity costs are not factored into production budgets, a movie needs to earn two and a half times its budget in order to break even. This means that the break-even point for theConclavereleaseis most likely $50 million or more. This meansit probably still needs to make roughly $35 million morein order to end up in the black, which could present a problem as the holiday movie season begins to heat up.
By the end of November, blockbusters includingRed One,Moana 2,Gladiator II, andWickedwill crowd out theaters, providing major competition forConclave.
Given the fact that it is already making sub-$10 million grosses in its second weekend, it seemsunlikely to hit that break-even point during its domestic run. However, the movie has only been released in North America so far, with an international release still to come, including a debut in the United Kingdom on November 29.Conclavereviews, which have earned the movie a Certified Fresh 92% score on Rotten Tomatoes, could also work in tandem with a potential Oscar nomination to boost the movie’s prospects at the domestic box office later down the line.
Our Take On The Conclave Box Office
It Doesn’t Necessarily Need To Turn A Profit
Even ifConclavefails to break even, a strong Academy Awards performance could more than make up for its commercial disappointment.Winning Oscars provides value for movies long after the factwith re-releases, video-on-demand purchases, and more, as well as providing notoriety for their cast, crew, and the studios behind them and allowing further opportunities to come to them. The good an Oscar win could do for the movie’s production companies FilmNation Entertainment and House Productions could more than make up for any lack of a financial windfall from their initial investment.
Conclave
Cast
Cardinal Lawrence leads the secretive papal election at the Vatican, where he uncovers a conspiracy and a secret that could destabilize the Church’s foundation as leaders gather from around the world.
