The Academy Award for Best Picture is the most coveted award at theOscars, and while the race is one of the tightest ones in years, the data clearly shows that there is one favorite with just six days left before the actual ceremony.The Academy Awards are all up to the opinions of the Academy voters, with it being impossible to objectively tell what movie is best or what movie will win Best Picture. However, there have been trends that have been followed throughout Oscars history, and these trends suggest that this Best Picture nominee has the best shot.
The batch ofBest Picture nominees for the 2025 Academy Awardsis fantastic, with the nominees includingAnora,The Brutalist,A Complete Unknown,Conclave,Dune: Part Two,Emilia Pérez,I’m Still Here,Nickel Boys,The Substance, andWicked. All of these films are some of the most critically acclaimed movies of 2024, and any one of them has a chance to win the Oscar. The race is incredibly close, with all sides having committed fanbases. However, this awards season has already pointed at who is most likely to win Best Picture come Oscars night.
Conclavehas been a frontrunner for Best Picture throughout awards season, and a recent award that the film received gave its Oscar chances a huge boost.Conclavehas already been building a lot of momentum as controversy has surrounded fellow nominees likeAnora,The Brutalist, andEmilia Pérez.Conclavehas also won a ton of awards already, with it getting an especially big boost in attention when it won Best Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, and Outstanding British Film at the BAFTA Awards.
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Conclaverecently won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Pictureat the Screen Actor Guild Awards, which gives the film a massive boost in the lead-up to Oscars night. This is one of the most important categories at the SAG Awards, with the win signaling thatConclavecould continue its successes at the Academy Awards.Conclave’s other awards at major and minor awards shows prove that the film has become a favorite in recent weeks, with it becoming a late-stage contender for the Academy Award for Best Picture during the awards season.
DespiteConclaveseeming like it has a pretty good chance at winning Best Picture, the data also suggests thatAnorahas an even better chance. This comes from analyzing the Producers Guild of America Awards, which historically have been more accurate at predicting the Best Picture winners than the SAG Awards.Anoratook home the top prize at the PGA Awards, that being Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. This PGA category has been given to the future Best Picture winner 25 out of 35 times, meaning that it signals thatAnorahas a pretty good shot.
Meanwhile, the ensemble category at the SAG Awards has only been given to the future Best Picture winner 15 out of 29 times, meaning that it is less accurate than the PGA Awards. The last time that they differed was during the awards season for 2020 movies, withThe Trial of the Chicago Sevenwinning the top SAG award andNomadlandwinning the top PGA award.Nomadlandthen went on to win Best Picture.
Interestingly, the time that they differed before that,SAG ended up accurately predicting the Best Picture winner while the PGA award didn’t. The top SAG award for the 2019 movie season went to future Best Picture winnerParasite, while the top PGA award went to1917. So, while it is impossible to accurately predict the Best Picture winner based on other awards shows, these trends do signal thatAnorahas a better chance of winning based on historical precedent, butConclaveisn’t far behind.
Does Conclave’s Lack Of Best Director Nomination Help Or Hurt It?
Only Six Other Movies Have Pulled It Off
One of the biggest strikes againstConclave’s chances of winning Best Picture is that it wasn’t nominated in one of the most important Oscar categories: Best Director. Thenominees for Best Directorare Sean Baker forAnora, Brady Corbet forThe Brutalist, James Mangold forA Complete Unknown, Jacques Audiard forEmilia Pérez, and Coralie Fargeat forThe Substance. Edward Berger not getting a nomination forConclavewas surprising for many fans of the film, with it leading to some worries thatConclavedoesn’t have a shot at winning Best Picture.
Throughout the history of the Academy Awards, only six movies have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Those movies are 1927’sWings, 1932’sGrand Hotel, 1989’sDriving Miss Daisy, 2012’sArgo, 2018’sGreen Book, and 2021’sCoda. So, while it has happened three times since the 2010s, it is still incredibly rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.Conclavewinning Best Picture would mark only the seventh time that this has happened, meaning that it would be an impressive feat for it to pull off.
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The recent swing in favor ofConclavemeans that there is a possibility that its lack of a Best Director nomination could end up helping it.It could be that the Academy voters decide to giveAnoraa Best Director award while givingCoclavea Best Picture awardso that both films can be appreciated. While this is unlikely, the preferential ballot system could lead to something like this happening, givingConclavethe Best Picture win.
Could Any Movie Other Than Anora Or Conclave Win Best Picture?
The Brutalist Seems Like The Only Other Option
It seems incredibly unlikely that another movie outside ofAnoraorConclavewill win Best Picture this year, with both of them doing well at the majority of other awards shows. The third most likely candidate is probablyThe Brutalist, and this is thanks to the acclaim that Adrien Brody’s performance is getting. Movies likeA Complete UnknownandThe Substancemay have a slight chance, but it would be shocking if any of them beatAnoraorConclave. However, like at anyOscarsceremony, it is impossible to predict what will happen at the Academy Awards.
