The announcement of the2025 SAG Awardnominations following the conclusion of the82nd Golden Globe Awardshas set an early stage for theupcoming 2025 Oscar race. While there were severalsurprises and snubs at the 2025 Golden Globes, some of the winners were also quite predictable, the most apparent of them being Adrien Brody’s victory in the Best Actor, Drama category forThe Brutalistand Zoe Saldaña’s Best Supporting Actress, Musical or Comedy win forEmilia Pérez.
While the Golden Globes can be quite predictive of certainOscar races, particularly the Supporting Actor category, the SAG Awards generally have more staying power leading into the Academy Awards.The 31st annual SAG Awards will take place on Sunday, June 08, 2025, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles, California. The event will stream live on Netflix for the second straight year at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.Wicked, which won Best Box Office & Cinematic Achievement at the Golden Globes, earned the most SAG Award film nominations with five, followed byA Complete Unknown’sfour.
What The SAG Nominations Mean For The Oscars 2025 Best Picture Race
Wicked nearly secures its Best Picture nom after disappointing Golden Globes
Wickedhaving the most SAG Award nominations is obviously a good sign for its Oscar chances, where it will likely be nominated for Best Picture and numerous acting categories. One SAG Award category to keep an eye on will beBest Cast In A Motion Picture, which has gone to the eventual Best Picture winner in four out of the past five years(Oppenheimer,Everything Everywhere All at Once,CODA,Parasite).Wickedleads the nominees, which also includeA Complete Unknown,Anora,Conclave, andEmilia Pérez. All five of these films are near-locks to receive Best Picture nominations.
The Brutalist vs. Emilia Pérez: Which Golden Globes Winner Is Better Positioned To Win Best Picture At The 2025 Oscars
The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez were the big winners at the 2025 Golden Globes, but which one is more likely to take home Best Picture at the Oscars?
AlthoughThe Brutalistwasn’t widely recognized by the SAG Awards, earning just one nomination for Adrien Brody’s Golden Globe-winning role, it is a guaranteed Best Picture Oscar nomination after winning Best Picture, Drama and Best Director for Brady Corbet at the Globes. This leaves roughly four spaces available for other potential Best Picture nominations, which could go to as many as ten worthy films.
Demi Moore’s Golden Globe win and SAG nomination for Best Actress boosts the chances ofThe Substance, while Colman Domingo’sSing Sing, which was arguably snubbed from a Best Cast nomination, should also find its way into the Best Picture fold in March. Culkin’s momentum following his Golden Globe win should also shoot Jesse Eisenberg’sA Real Paininto the Best Picture conversation, leaving Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epicDune: Part Twoto pick up the last available Best Picture nomination. Given the ten nominations and six wins of 2021’sDune, as well as its box office success, odds areDune: Part Twowill get the nom.
What The SAG Nominations Mean For The Oscars 2025 Best Actor Race
Adrien Brody firmly holds onto his frontrunner position
The SAG Awards nominees for Best Actor include Adiren Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Daniel Craig (Queer). The first four nominees are safe bets for Oscar nominations, whileCraig’s fifth and final spot could be filled by Sebastian Stan. Stan would more likely be nominated for his Globe-winning performance inA Different Manover his portrayal of Donald Trump inThe Apprentice.
None of the Golden Globe nominees for Best Actor, Musical or Comedy, which includes Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Gabriel Labelle (Saturday Night), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), and Glen Powell (Hit Man), seem like genuine contenders for that fifth spot. Statistically,the SAG Awards and the Oscars have only matched all five Best Actor nominees just nine times in history(1996, 1997, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2023). A three out of the last five years trend, however, is certainly not nothing, meaning that Craig could wind up with that fifth Oscar nomination even if Stan arguably deserves it.
What The SAG Nominations Mean For The Oscars 2025 Best Actress Race
Moore, Madison, and Erivo are in good positions
The SAG Awards nominees for Best Actress include Demi Moore (The Substance), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Mikey Madison (Anora), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez).Gascón would make history by becoming the first openly trans actor to receive an Oscar nomination, although there is somecontroversy surroundingEmilia Pérezand how a win for Gascón may actually not win the favor of the trans community. Regardless, she is very likely to receive a nomination after being acknowledged by both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards.
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That being said, the Best Actress race is truly between Moore and Madison, althoughWicked’sstrong SAG Awards showing seems to have made their head-to-head competition into a three-way battle. Like Gascón, Anderson is nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG Award now, so why not an Oscar? Well, recent Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres and her performance inI’m Still Heremay have something to say about that. Meanwhile, Hollywood darlings Angelina Jolie and Nichole Kidman are eyeing that fifth nomination slot forMariaandBabygirl, respectively. Statistically, the SAG Awards and the Oscars have only matched all five Best Actress nominees seven times, the last one being in 2009.
What The SAG Nominations Mean For The Oscars 2025 Best Supporting Actor Race
Washington may get a nomination but looks nearly out of the Oscar race
While Kieran Culkin’s Golden Globe win over Denzel Washington’sGladiator IIperformance raised some eyebrows, he has emerged as the early frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor.Washington’s Golden Globes loss and complete omission from the SAG Awards nominees, which include Culkin, Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Tura Borisov (Anora), and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), nearly nudges him out of contention. It’s possible that the Oscars may nudge Borisov or even Bailey out for Washington, but other contenders such asThe Brutalist’sGuy Pearce may overpower Washington’s chances.
A Complete Unknown’sEdward Norton remains an understated favorite who should be aided by the momentum ofA Complete Unknown’sfour SAG Award nominations, especially if Brody wins over Chalamet for Best Actor again. That being said, Culkin is still very much in the lead and a SAG Award win would virtually guarantee a Supporting Actor Oscar win. Statistically,the Supporting Actor SAG Award winner has gone on to win the Oscar every year since 2016. Six of the eight most recent Golden Globe Supporting Actor winners have won the SAG Award the same year.
What The SAG Nominations Mean For The Oscars 2025 Best Supporting Actress Race
It’s still Grande vs Saldana, with Saldana very much in the lead
The most surprising yet unsurprisingSAG Award nominee for Best Supporting Actress is Jamie Lee Curtis for her role inThe Last Showgirl. The recent 2023 Oscar winner could have a shot at earning another Supporting Actress nomination based on her SAG Award inclusion. However, even with the nomination, she’d have some pretty stiff competition from two of the greatest musical performances in Zoe Saldaña’sEmilia Pérezand Ariana Grande’sWicked, which are the sure frontrunners. The other nominees, Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) and Daniell Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) are worthy yet somewhat unexpected entries.
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Missing once again from this category isThe Brutalist, who will likely have Felicity Jonesto represent it in the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race. Golden Globe nominee Selena Gomez did not get the SAG Award nom, which lessens her chances at receiving an acting Oscar nomination, although she has a great shot at a Best Original Song nomination for “Mi Camino.” Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) is also in the mix, making for what could be a highly competitive Supporting Actress race at the Oscars, even though Saldaña’s Golden Globe win elevates her above the rest.
Statistically, five of eight Golden Globe winners have won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, while14 of 15 of the previous SAG Award winners have won the Best Supporting ActressOscar. If Saldaña sweeps the Golden Globes and theSAG Awards, she’ll be a shoo-in to take home her first career Oscar in March.
